Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?

$402 vol.10月 1, 2026
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Live odds and probability for Will there be a power grid emergency before October 1?. Predict outcomes on Bitget Wallet.

Outcomes

Midwest (MISO)

$40 Vol.

Central US (SPP)

$40 Vol.

Mid-Atlantic (PJM)

$40 Vol.

New York (NYISO)

$141 Vol.

California (CAISO)

$60 Vol.

Texas (ERCOT)

$80 Vol.

About this market

This market resolves "Yes" if the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) — the regional transmission organization serving all or part of 15 U.S. states from the Great Lakes to the Gulf Coast — declares a NERC Energy Emergency Alert at Level 2 (EEA-2) or Level 3 (EEA-3) for any of its balancing authority areas from this market's creation through 11:59 PM CT on September 30, 2026. "Midwest" in the title is a general label — only a MISO declaration counts, and emergencies in other grid operators do not qualify. A lower EEA-1 declaration does not qualify. A declaration qualifies as long as it happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. A DOE Section 202(c) emergency order is not a NERC EEA declaration and does not qualify. Because Energy Emergency Alerts are federally reportable, a qualifying declaration is also verifiable through mandatory NERC or U.S. Department of Energy records (DOE Form OE-417, published at https://www.oe.netl.doe.gov/oe417.aspx) even if no other source captures it. The declaration will be confirmed by any official MISO communication — its Media Center (https://www.misoenergy.org/meet-miso/media-center/), market notices, or real-time grid-condition postings — or by credible national news reporting. It qualifies as long as the declaration itself happened before the deadline, even if it is only documented or reported afterward. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
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