This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the disease or outbreak as a "pandemic". A Public Health Emergency of International Concern alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Plague pandemic in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. 

An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired its infection from a person, animal, sample or material connected to the Irkutsk outbreak, or that the case travelled from Irkutsk Oblast within the incubation period and is being investigated as part of that outbreak. 

Resolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not the date of exposure, symptom onset or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the WHO and the national public health authority of the country reporting the case; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify.

The case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice. 

October 31, 2026

October 15, 2026

Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New Pandemic

New pandemic in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

4000+

3900+

4100+

measles

Measles cases in U.S. by October 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used.

Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

↑4k

↑4.5k

↑4.75k

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares any disease a pandemic between market creation and December 31, 2027 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New pandemic before 2028?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the United States at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify.

For the purposes of this market, the United States includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. A case qualifies if the patient is diagnosed in the United States, regardless of where the infection was acquired. Cases diagnosed outside the United States, including in U.S. citizens abroad, do not qualify.

The case does not need to be epidemiologically linked to the Irkutsk outbreak or any other specific outbreak to qualify.

Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. state or local public health authorities, and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.

Plague case in US by December 31?

This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page.

Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap.

The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. 

If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time.

If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.

35 to 49

20 to 34

Fewer than 20

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic.

A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

December 31

November 30

Plague declared public health emergency by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.


Nigeria

Somalia

South Sudan

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government issues a measure banning entry into the United States by Russian nationals or by travelers who have been physically present in Russia or any specified region within Russia, on plague-related grounds between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure is a proclamation, executive order, rule, or equivalent formal action that prohibits or suspends entry into US territory by Russian citizens or nationals, or by travelers who have been physically present in Russia or any specified region within Russia, whatever lookback period the measure uses. Russian nationality or physical presence in Russia or a specified region within Russia must be an express criterion determining who is subject to the entry prohibition. A measure that bars entry of Russian nationals as a class or travelers with such physical presence qualifies even if it carries exceptions or applies only to certain visa categories.

The measure, or the official announcement issuing it, must cite plague, Yersinia pestis, or the suspected plague incident reported from Irkutsk Oblast, Russia in October 2026 as a basis for the entry prohibition. Plague need not be the sole basis, but a passing reference in background material is insufficient. A measure that cites no plague-related basis does not qualify.

A statement of intent to impose a ban, with no formal measure issued, does not qualify. A measure that only limits, pauses, or slows visa processing or issuance without barring entry does not qualify, nor do sanctions, visa revocations, or entry denials targeting named individuals or entities. Testing, screening, quarantine, vaccination, or health-document requirements alone do not qualify. Restrictions based solely on an individual's infection, symptoms, or exposure, without a qualifying Russia-specific class prohibition, do not qualify. Travel advisories and measures that only restrict flights or boarding without prohibiting entry do not qualify. A measure already in force at market creation does not qualify. However, a new amendment to an existing measure qualifies if it introduces a qualifying plague-related entry prohibition. Merely adding a plague-related rationale to an unchanged existing prohibition does not qualify.

Resolution turns on the date the measure is issued, not the date it takes effect or the date it is reported. A measure issued within the window counts even if its effective date falls later, its confirmation is reported afterward, or its implementation is halted or delayed by judicial or other action.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

US plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new COVID pandemic other than COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official announcements from the World Health Organization.

New Coronavirus Pandemic

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the United States federal government formally declares a national emergency, an extraordinary emergency, or uses another emergency authority to declare a national crisis in response to a screwworm (Cochliomyia hominivorax) outbreak in U.S. livestock by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare an emergency will not qualify.

Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to screwworm. 

The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official publications of the White House, Department of Agriculture, Secretary of Agriculture, or other federal departments or agencies, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

October 31

June 30

Screwworm National Emergency declared by...?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

Pandemics